Model projections

The nfl_statgrab model — the single source behind the draft board. Projects NFL stat lines (veterans walk-forward, rookies from draft capital + landing spot), scored to fantasy points with calibrated uncertainty bands.

Season 2026walk-forward ML225 playersnfl_statgrabRange = proj ± 1σUpdated 12 Jun 2026Sportsbook lines → Props ↗

QB41 playersADP · Value = model rank − ADP rank

#	Player	Team	Bye	Gms	Proj	Range	ADP	Value
1	Josh Allen	BUF	7	17	393.4	324 – 462	30.2	0
2	Matthew Stafford	LAR	—	17	356.3	284 – 428	103.9	+12
3	Lamar Jackson	BAL	13	17	353.7	282 – 426	54.3	-1
4	Jalen Hurts	PHI	10	17	344.9	276 – 414	69.1	+1
5	Patrick Mahomes	KC	5	17	343.8	275 – 413	92.2	+6
6	Drake Maye	NE	11	17	342.9	277 – 409	70.9	+1
7	Jared Goff	DET	6	17	338.9	270 – 408	104.4	+8
8	Caleb Williams	CHI	10	17	332.7	267 – 398	70.3	-2
9	Justin Herbert	LAC	7	17	323.4	257 – 389	83.7	0
10	Brock Purdy	SF	8	17	323.3	254 – 392	97.4	+2
11	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	7	17	315.3	250 – 381	86.4	-1
12	Bo Nix	DEN	10	17	315.1	249 – 381	100.6	+1
13	Dak Prescott	DAL	14	17	311.8	246 – 378	78.1	-5
14	Jordan Love	GB	11	17	303.8	238 – 370	107.8	+3
15	C.J. Stroud	HOU	8	17	299.4	234 – 365	141.4	+5
16	Joe Burrow	CIN	6	17	298.0	232 – 364	63.5	-13
17	Baker Mayfield	TB	10	17	294.5	232 – 357	115.7	+1
18	Sam Darnold	SEA	11	17	294.4	225 – 364	137.4	+1
19	Jayden Daniels	WAS	7	17	284.1	224 – 344	65.6	-15
20	Kyler Murray	MIN	6	17	256.3	194 – 319	106.3	-4
21	Aaron Rodgers	PIT	9	17	248.9	189 – 309	187.5	+4
22	Daniel Jones	IND	13	17	248.8	189 – 308	146.2	-1
23	Bryce Young	CAR	5	17	240.3	181 – 300	153.9	-1
24	Russell Wilson	FA	—	17	222.3	159 – 285	—	—
25	Michael Penix Jr.	ATL	11	17	222.0	163 – 281	213.3	+2
26	Geno Smith	NYJ	13	17	188.4	135 – 242	178.9	-2
27	Kirk Cousins	LV	13	17	177.5	124 – 231	215.2	+1
28	Justin Fields	KC	5	2	35.3	27 – 43	215.8	+2
29	Fernando Mendoza ROOKIE	LV	13	2	33.7	25 – 42	167.2	-6
30	Joe Flacco	CIN	6	2	32.5	25 – 40	216.0	+1
31	Mac Jones	SF	8	2	30.9	23 – 39	216.0	+1
32	Tua Tagovailoa	ATL	11	2	27.1	20 – 34	208.4	-6
33	Marcus Mariota	WAS	7	2	26.9	20 – 34	216.0	0
34	Davis Mills	HOU	8	2	26.5	19 – 34	216.0	0
35	Spencer Rattler	NO	8	2	25.8	19 – 33	216.0	0
36	Ty Simpson ROOKIE	LAR	—	2	25.1	13 – 37	216.0	0
37	Jake Browning	TB	10	2	22.6	15 – 30	—	—
38	Cade Klubnik ROOKIE	NYJ	13	2	19.9	11 – 29	216.0	-1
39	Carson Beck ROOKIE	ARI	14	0	0.0	0 – 0	215.3	-10
40	Drew Allar ROOKIE	PIT	9	0	0.0	0 – 0	216.0	-2
41	Carson Wentz	MIN	6	0	0.0	0 – 0	—	—

RB55 playersADP · Value = model rank − ADP rank

#	Player	Team	Bye	Gms	Proj	Range	ADP	Value
1	Christian McCaffrey	SF	8	17	318.7	252 – 385	7.2	+3
2	Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	6	17	303.2	236 – 370	1.6	0
3	Bijan Robinson	ATL	11	17	269.3	212 – 327	1.5	-2
4	Jeremiyah Love ROOKIE	ARI	14	17	264.2	214 – 314	22.9	+7
5	James Cook	BUF	7	17	262.1	195 – 329	11.0	0
6	Kyren Williams	LAR	—	17	255.8	186 – 326	34.2	+9
7	Jonathan Taylor	IND	13	17	248.7	191 – 307	6.8	-4
8	Derrick Henry	BAL	13	17	248.6	179 – 318	17.4	+1
9	Saquon Barkley	PHI	10	17	244.4	178 – 311	14.4	-2
10	Josh Jacobs	GB	11	17	221.5	158 – 285	26.5	+2
11	Chase Brown	CIN	6	17	220.8	157 – 285	18.3	-1
12	De'Von Achane	MIA	6	17	215.8	164 – 268	13.6	-6
13	Javonte Williams	DAL	14	17	212.0	148 – 276	36.6	+3
14	D'Andre Swift	CHI	10	17	206.8	143 – 270	53.6	+5
15	Kenneth Walker III	KC	5	17	193.7	127 – 260	15.9	-7
16	J.K. Dobbins	DEN	10	17	187.7	124 – 252	103.3	+11
17	Bucky Irving	TB	10	17	187.5	127 – 248	45.0	0
18	Travis Etienne	NO	8	17	186.0	128 – 244	31.2	-4
19	Zach Charbonnet	SEA	11	17	169.7	103 – 237	157.8	+16
20	Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	11	17	167.7	104 – 232	74.9	+2
21	Breece Hall	NYJ	13	17	166.3	115 – 218	30.3	-8
22	David Montgomery	HOU	8	17	163.8	100 – 228	49.2	-4
23	Jaylen Warren	PIT	9	17	147.7	90 – 206	80.7	+1
24	Kareem Hunt	FA	—	17	144.3	83 – 205	216.0	+25
25	Tony Pollard	TEN	9	17	143.4	89 – 198	76.9	-2
26	Chuba Hubbard	CAR	5	17	139.9	82 – 198	68.6	-5
27	Aaron Jones	MIN	6	17	131.7	71 – 192	120.0	+2
28	Nick Chubb	FA	—	17	129.0	68 – 190	—	—
29	Jadarian Price ROOKIE	SEA	11	11	114.9	73 – 157	58.2	-9
30	Alvin Kamara	NO	8	11	98.1	61 – 136	181.2	+10
31	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	NYG	8	11	98.0	61 – 135	130.3	+1
32	Rico Dowdle	PIT	9	11	96.5	59 – 134	90.5	-7
33	Blake Corum	LAR	—	11	95.0	50 – 140	96.4	-7
34	Kenneth Gainwell	TB	10	11	88.0	49 – 127	117.6	-6
35	Rachaad White	WAS	7	11	84.3	47 – 122	122.9	-4
36	Isiah Pacheco	DET	6	11	83.3	40 – 127	150.6	-2
37	Jordan Mason	MIN	6	11	78.4	39 – 118	121.9	-7
38	Tank Bigsby	PHI	10	11	75.4	32 – 118	178.4	+1
39	Tyjae Spears	TEN	9	11	73.3	38 – 109	162.8	-2
40	Samaje Perine	CIN	6	11	67.9	26 – 109	215.6	+6
41	Ty Johnson	BUF	7	11	67.1	24 – 110	215.8	+6
42	Brian Robinson	ATL	11	11	64.3	27 – 102	165.4	-4
43	Mike Washington ROOKIE	LV	13	11	63.8	31 – 96	184.2	-2
44	Tyler Allgeier	ARI	14	11	60.2	27 – 94	159.2	-8
45	Jaylen Wright	MIA	6	11	58.4	25 – 92	215.9	+3
46	Kaelon Black ROOKIE	SF	8	2	13.1	6 – 21	206.4	-1
47	Ray Davis	BUF	7	2	12.6	5 – 20	203.1	-3
48	Devin Singletary	NYG	8	2	12.2	5 – 19	216.0	+2
49	Jonah Coleman ROOKIE	DEN	10	2	11.9	5 – 19	141.8	-16
50	Emanuel Wilson	SEA	11	2	11.3	4 – 19	192.4	-8
51	Sean Tucker	TB	10	2	11.0	4 – 18	200.1	-8
52	Emari Demercado	KC	5	0	0.0	0 – 0	216.0	-1
53	Bam Knight	ARI	14	0	0.0	0 – 0	—	—
54	Michael Carter	TEN	9	0	0.0	0 – 0	—	—
55	Jeremy McNichols	WAS	7	0	0.0	0 – 0	—	—

WR90 playersADP · Value = model rank − ADP rank

#	Player	Team	Bye	Gms	Proj	Range	ADP	Value
1	Puka Nacua	LAR	—	17	294.2	242 – 346	4.1	+1
2	Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	6	17	273.8	226 – 322	3.1	-1
3	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	11	17	270.3	220 – 320	5.2	0
4	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	6	17	267.6	218 – 318	8.0	0
5	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	14	17	217.2	170 – 265	9.3	0
6	Zay Flowers	BAL	13	17	214.8	162 – 267	38.2	+8
7	George Pickens	DAL	14	17	214.5	167 – 262	25.3	+2
8	Jameson Williams	DET	6	17	213.5	164 – 264	48.2	+10
9	Nico Collins	HOU	8	17	212.7	165 – 260	25.8	+1
10	A.J. Brown	PHI	10	17	210.1	160 – 260	215.8	+66
11	Rashee Rice	KC	5	17	208.5	159 – 258	19.0	-4
12	Chris Olave	NO	8	17	198.7	156 – 242	32.7	0
13	Tee Higgins	CIN	6	17	198.2	150 – 246	35.6	0
14	Davante Adams	LAR	—	17	198.2	146 – 250	50.9	+7
15	Drake London	ATL	11	17	197.9	155 – 241	19.7	-7
16	DeVonta Smith	PHI	10	17	197.5	148 – 247	32.2	-5
17	Justin Jefferson	MIN	6	17	197.3	152 – 243	9.7	-11
18	Courtland Sutton	DEN	10	17	183.7	136 – 232	81.2	+15
19	Ladd McConkey	LAC	7	17	182.7	135 – 231	40.5	-3
20	Brian Thomas Jr.	JAX	7	17	179.7	132 – 227	64.8	+7
21	Quentin Johnston	LAC	7	17	177.0	129 – 225	94.2	+16
22	Carnell Tate ROOKIE	TEN	9	17	174.3	130 – 218	60.7	+3
23	Jauan Jennings	SF	8	17	170.3	120 – 220	146.9	+26
24	Christian Watson	GB	11	17	170.1	122 – 218	59.3	0
25	Khalil Shakir	BUF	7	17	168.4	118 – 219	127.0	+20
26	Rome Odunze	CHI	10	17	167.4	120 – 215	56.4	-3
27	Mike Evans	SF	8	17	163.9	114 – 214	45.3	-10
28	Jordan Addison	MIN	6	17	159.1	114 – 204	85.6	+6
29	Xavier Worthy	KC	5	17	158.9	109 – 209	110.0	+12
30	Jakobi Meyers	JAX	7	17	158.2	110 – 206	95.9	+8
31	DK Metcalf	PIT	9	17	157.0	114 – 200	76.5	+1
32	Jaylen Waddle	DEN	10	17	156.6	109 – 204	49.9	-13
33	Jordyn Tyson ROOKIE	NO	8	17	156.0	110 – 202	62.5	-7
34	Parker Washington	JAX	7	17	152.6	105 – 200	75.4	-3
35	Troy Franklin	DEN	10	17	152.0	104 – 200	210.1	+29
36	DJ Moore	BUF	7	17	151.6	101 – 202	53.0	-14
37	Stefon Diggs	FA	—	17	151.4	106 – 197	141.1	+11
38	Keon Coleman	BUF	7	17	150.8	101 – 201	214.8	+32
39	Romeo Doubs	NE	11	17	150.6	103 – 198	113.4	+3
40	Rashid Shaheed	SEA	11	17	149.0	99 – 199	136.8	+6
41	Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN	9	17	148.6	108 – 189	117.4	+3
42	Deebo Samuel	FA	—	17	144.9	99 – 190	170.1	+12
43	Alec Pierce	IND	13	17	144.1	101 – 187	71.5	-14
44	Makai Lemon ROOKIE	PHI	10	17	142.8	89 – 196	72.5	-14
45	Garrett Wilson	NYJ	13	17	142.7	104 – 182	38.3	-30
46	Terry McLaurin	WAS	7	17	137.7	94 – 181	50.5	-26
47	Cooper Kupp	SEA	11	17	137.7	88 – 188	208.3	+14
48	Michael Wilson	ARI	14	17	137.6	99 – 176	87.6	-13
49	Chris Godwin	TB	10	17	136.2	91 – 182	88.7	-13
50	Michael Pittman	PIT	9	17	134.9	92 – 178	108.3	-10
51	Keenan Allen	FA	—	17	134.9	89 – 180	215.8	+26
52	Marvin Harrison Jr.	ARI	14	17	133.6	95 – 172	67.4	-24
53	Josh Downs	IND	13	17	131.1	88 – 174	99.3	-14
54	Tre Tucker	LV	13	17	127.6	89 – 166	157.3	-4
55	KC Concepcion ROOKIE	CLE	11	17	121.2	77 – 165	114.8	-12
56	Marvin Mims Jr.	DEN	10	17	119.7	72 – 168	215.9	+22
57	De'Zhaun Stribling ROOKIE	SF	8	17	115.3	62 – 169	164.1	-4
58	Jerry Jeudy	CLE	11	17	113.5	73 – 154	179.9	-3
59	Andrei Iosivas	CIN	6	17	110.5	63 – 158	215.4	+14
60	Christian Kirk	SF	8	17	108.6	59 – 158	213.7	+8
61	Xavier Legette	CAR	5	17	107.6	64 – 151	216.0	+20
62	Mack Hollins	NE	11	17	106.4	58 – 154	216.0	+20
63	Omar Cooper ROOKIE	NYJ	13	17	105.7	64 – 147	139.9	-16
64	Denzel Boston ROOKIE	CLE	11	17	101.4	58 – 145	161.3	-12
65	Germie Bernard ROOKIE	PIT	9	17	101.0	54 – 148	182.5	-9
66	Darius Slayton	NYG	8	17	93.4	50 – 136	215.7	+9
67	Darnell Mooney	NYG	8	17	90.6	47 – 134	198.7	-7
68	Calvin Austin III	NYG	8	17	87.1	44 – 130	216.0	+15
69	Adonai Mitchell	NYJ	13	17	85.8	47 – 125	210.9	-4
70	Sterling Shepard	FA	—	17	84.3	39 – 130	—	—
71	Van Jefferson	WAS	7	17	83.7	40 – 127	—	—
72	Ja'Kobi Lane ROOKIE	BAL	13	17	83.4	27 – 140	214.7	-3
73	Olamide Zaccheaus	ATL	11	17	82.0	39 – 125	216.0	+11
74	Kendrick Bourne	ARI	14	17	81.6	43 – 120	215.9	+5
75	Antonio Williams ROOKIE	WAS	7	17	77.6	31 – 124	160.1	-24
76	Chris Brazzell ROOKIE	CAR	5	17	75.5	29 – 122	213.0	-10
77	Caleb Douglas ROOKIE	MIA	6	17	75.3	34 – 117	215.0	-6
78	Ted Hurst ROOKIE	TB	10	17	75.0	26 – 124	193.1	-20
79	Tyler Lockett	FA	—	17	74.2	28 – 120	—	—
80	Zachariah Branch ROOKIE	ATL	11	17	73.7	27 – 120	198.0	-21
81	Brenen Thompson ROOKIE	LAC	7	17	71.2	20 – 123	215.3	-9
82	Malachi Fields ROOKIE	NYG	8	17	69.9	24 – 116	210.0	-19
83	Colbie Young ROOKIE	CIN	6	17	69.7	18 – 121	216.0	+2
84	Zavion Thomas ROOKIE	CHI	10	17	68.3	17 – 120	215.4	-10
85	Chris Bell ROOKIE	MIA	6	17	68.0	26 – 110	188.5	-28
86	Kaden Wetjen ROOKIE	PIT	9	17	67.5	21 – 114	216.0	0
87	Elijah Sarratt ROOKIE	BAL	13	17	66.9	13 – 121	208.6	-25
88	Bryce Lance ROOKIE	NO	8	17	60.1	14 – 107	215.9	-8
89	Skyler Bell ROOKIE	BUF	7	17	50.4	4 – 97	213.6	-22
90	Marquise Brown	PHI	10	0	0.0	0 – 0	—	—

TE39 playersADP · Value = model rank − ADP rank

#	Player	Team	Bye	Gms	Proj	Range	ADP	Value
1	Sam LaPorta	DET	6	17	168.9	127 – 210	97.8	+3
2	Trey McBride	ARI	14	17	165.3	133 – 198	24.4	0
3	Travis Kelce	KC	5	17	161.6	120 – 203	124.3	+4
4	Tucker Kraft	GB	11	17	160.1	120 – 200	80.5	-1
5	George Kittle	SF	8	17	159.5	118 – 201	116.7	+1
6	Dalton Kincaid	BUF	7	17	158.4	117 – 200	131.3	+4
7	Dallas Goedert	PHI	10	17	156.7	115 – 198	135.3	+4
8	Mark Andrews	BAL	13	17	144.7	101 – 188	127.3	+1
9	Kyle Pitts	ATL	11	17	142.9	107 – 179	103.4	-4
10	Hunter Henry	NE	11	17	142.0	102 – 182	150.2	+3
11	Jake Ferguson	DAL	14	17	138.7	99 – 178	124.3	-3
12	Brenton Strange	JAX	7	17	133.3	94 – 173	153.0	+2
13	Brock Bowers	LV	13	17	133.0	101 – 165	21.3	-12
14	Dalton Schultz	HOU	8	17	130.9	91 – 171	171.3	+4
15	Colby Parkinson	LAR	—	17	126.1	83 – 170	214.1	+9
16	Dawson Knox	BUF	7	17	124.2	82 – 166	215.7	+13
17	Evan Engram	DEN	10	17	123.0	83 – 163	214.9	+8
18	Cade Otton	TB	10	17	122.5	85 – 160	185.4	+1
19	Zach Ertz	FA	—	17	122.0	84 – 160	216.0	+14
20	T.J. Hockenson	MIN	6	17	119.4	82 – 157	163.9	-3
21	Juwan Johnson	NO	8	17	117.1	81 – 153	155.5	-5
22	Theo Johnson	NYG	8	17	116.6	81 – 152	215.4	+4
23	Pat Freiermuth	PIT	9	17	109.2	73 – 145	194.7	-1
24	Cole Kmet	CHI	10	17	105.1	66 – 145	215.9	+7
25	Chig Okonkwo	WAS	7	17	104.4	68 – 140	153.2	-10
26	Mike Gesicki	CIN	6	17	103.7	64 – 143	207.8	-3
27	Jonnu Smith	FA	—	17	100.7	63 – 138	—	—
28	Kenyon Sadiq ROOKIE	NYJ	13	17	100.5	70 – 131	147.7	-16
29	David Njoku	LAC	7	17	98.1	58 – 138	190.3	-9
30	Eli Stowers ROOKIE	PHI	10	17	82.3	43 – 122	193.5	-9
31	Michael Mayer	LV	13	17	78.6	46 – 111	215.5	-4
32	Max Klare ROOKIE	LAR	—	17	77.1	36 – 119	215.9	0
33	Marlin Klein ROOKIE	HOU	8	17	76.1	38 – 114	216.0	+1
34	Noah Fant	NO	8	17	75.2	39 – 111	216.0	+1
35	Nate Boerkircher ROOKIE	JAX	7	17	72.9	35 – 111	216.0	+1
36	Eli Raridon ROOKIE	NE	11	17	71.0	33 – 109	215.7	-6
37	Oscar Delp ROOKIE	NO	8	17	62.7	28 – 97	215.5	-9
38	Sam Roush ROOKIE	CHI	10	17	61.6	24 – 100	216.0	-1
39	Will Kacmarek ROOKIE	MIA	6	17	54.7	24 – 86	216.0	-1

Model evaluation

Walk-forward cross-validation on held-out historical seasons (2018–2025). Ridge = production model. Naive = 3-year per-game average (the baseline we beat). R² is relative to the naive mean prediction. MAE and RMSE in per-game units.

RB — skill model (veterans, walk-forward CV)

Target	MAE (ridge/g)	RMSE	R²	MAE (naive)	N × Seasons
Carries/g	2.727↓ 8% vs naive	3.361	+0.494	2.969	465 × 8y
Rush yd/g	13.847↓ 6% vs naive	17.303	+0.431	14.654	465 × 8y
Rush TD/g	0.175↓ 12% vs naive	0.235	+0.234	0.199	465 × 8y
Targets/g	0.903↓ 7% vs naive	1.126	+0.448	0.969	465 × 8y
Rec/g	0.73↓ 7% vs naive	0.922	+0.439	0.784	465 × 8y
Rec yd/g	6.436↓ 7% vs naive	8.133	+0.395	6.89	465 × 8y

WR — skill model (veterans, walk-forward CV)

Target	MAE (ridge/g)	RMSE	R²	MAE (naive)	N × Seasons
Targets/g	1.12↓ 9% vs naive	1.369	+0.476	1.237	516 × 8y
Rec/g	0.874↓ 7% vs naive	1.081	+0.441	0.942	516 × 8y
Rec yd/g	12.068↓ 7% vs naive	14.926	+0.396	12.965	516 × 8y
Rec TD/g	0.143↓ 12% vs naive	0.179	+0.200	0.162	516 × 8y
Rush yd/g	1.178↓ -4% vs naive	1.951	+0.297	1.128	516 × 8y

TE — skill model (veterans, walk-forward CV)

Target	MAE (ridge/g)	RMSE	R²	MAE (naive)	N × Seasons
Targets/g	1.087↓ 9% vs naive	1.334	+0.333	1.191	209 × 8y
Rec/g	0.831↓ 10% vs naive	1.014	+0.302	0.922	209 × 8y
Rec yd/g	10.28↓ 4% vs naive	12.618	+0.283	10.763	209 × 8y
Rec TD/g	0.128↓ 17% vs naive	0.161	+0.042	0.154	209 × 8y

Rookie model — leave-one-season-out CV (draft picks 2012–2025)

4.18

MAE fp/g

102 player-seasons · ridge

2.92

MAE fp/g

256 player-seasons · ridge

2.42

MAE fp/g

372 player-seasons · ridge

1.83

MAE fp/g

157 player-seasons · ridge