Models

Walk-forward NFL projections for every skill position — veterans and rookies — with calibrated ranges and model-vs-ADP value.

Season 2026268 playersRange = proj ± 1σUpdated 18 Jul 2026

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QB46 playersValue = model rank − ADP rank

#	Player	Team	Bye	Gms	Proj	Range	ADP	Value
1	Josh Allen	BUF	—	17	393.4	324 – 462	30.2	0
2	Matthew Stafford	LAR	—	17	356.3	284 – 428	103.9	+13
3	Lamar Jackson	BAL	—	17	353.7	282 – 426	54.3	-1
4	Jalen Hurts	PHI	10	17	344.9	276 – 414	69.1	+1
5	Patrick Mahomes	KC	—	17	343.8	275 – 413	92.2	+7
6	Drake Maye	NE	11	17	342.9	277 – 409	70.9	+1
7	Jared Goff	DET	—	17	338.9	270 – 408	104.4	+9
8	Caleb Williams	CHI	10	17	332.7	267 – 398	70.3	-2
9	Justin Herbert	LAC	7	17	323.4	257 – 389	83.7	0
10	Brock Purdy	SF	8	17	323.3	254 – 392	97.4	+3
11	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	7	17	315.3	250 – 381	86.4	-1
12	Bo Nix	DEN	10	17	315.1	249 – 381	100.6	+2
13	Dak Prescott	DAL	—	17	311.8	246 – 378	78.1	-5
14	Jordan Love	GB	11	17	303.8	238 – 370	107.8	+4
15	C.J. Stroud	HOU	8	17	299.4	234 – 365	141.4	+8
16	Joe Burrow	CIN	6	17	298.0	232 – 364	63.5	-13
17	Baker Mayfield	TB	—	17	294.5	232 – 357	115.7	+3
18	Sam Darnold	SEA	—	17	294.4	225 – 364	137.4	+3
19	Jayden Daniels	WAS	7	17	284.1	224 – 344	65.6	-15
20	Jaxson Dart	NYG	8	17	271.4	212 – 331	90.7	-9
21	Kyler Murray	MIN	—	17	256.3	194 – 319	106.3	-4
22	Daniel Jones	IND	—	17	248.8	189 – 308	146.2	+2
23	Tyler Shough	NO	8	17	248.7	189 – 308	112.5	-4
24	Aaron Rodgers	PIT	—	17	245.3	186 – 305	187.5	+5
25	Bryce Young	CAR	5	17	240.3	181 – 300	153.9	0
26	Cam Ward	TEN	9	17	229.7	173 – 286	138.4	-4
27	Michael Penix Jr.	ATL	11	17	228.3	169 – 288	213.3	+4
28	Jacoby Brissett	ARI	—	17	209.1	156 – 263	177.8	-1
29	Geno Smith	NYJ	—	17	188.4	135 – 242	178.9	-1
30	Kirk Cousins	LV	—	17	177.5	124 – 231	215.2	+3
31	Justin Fields	KC	5	2	35.3	27 – 43	215.8	+4
32	Fernando Mendoza ROOKIE	LV	—	2	33.7	25 – 42	167.2	-6
33	Joe Flacco	CIN	—	2	32.5	25 – 40	216.0	+4
34	Mac Jones	SF	8	2	30.9	23 – 39	216.0	+4
35	J.J. McCarthy	MIN	6	2	29.9	22 – 37	215.8	+1
36	Tua Tagovailoa	ATL	11	2	27.1	20 – 34	208.4	-6
37	Marcus Mariota	WAS	—	2	26.9	20 – 34	216.0	+2
38	Davis Mills	HOU	8	2	26.5	19 – 34	216.0	+2
39	Spencer Rattler	NO	8	2	25.8	19 – 33	216.0	+2
40	Ty Simpson ROOKIE	LAR	—	2	25.1	13 – 37	216.0	+2
41	Shedeur Sanders	CLE	11	2	24.2	18 – 31	214.6	-9
42	Jake Browning	TB	—	2	22.6	15 – 30	—	—
43	Cade Klubnik ROOKIE	NYJ	—	2	19.9	11 – 29	216.0	0
44	Carson Beck ROOKIE	ARI	—	0	0.0	0 – 0	215.3	-10
45	Drew Allar ROOKIE	PIT	—	0	0.0	0 – 0	216.0	-1
46	Carson Wentz	MIN	—	0	0.0	0 – 0	—	—

RB73 playersValue = model rank − ADP rank

#	Player	Team	Bye	Gms	Proj	Range	ADP	Value
1	Christian McCaffrey	SF	—	17	319.4	254 – 385	7.2	+3
2	Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	6	17	297.7	232 – 363	1.6	0
3	Bijan Robinson	ATL	11	17	266.7	210 – 323	1.5	-2
4	Jeremiyah Love ROOKIE	ARI	—	17	264.2	214 – 314	22.9	+9
5	James Cook	BUF	7	17	259.9	194 – 325	11.0	0
6	Kyren Williams	LAR	—	17	255.5	187 – 324	34.2	+11
7	Derrick Henry	BAL	—	17	247.8	180 – 316	17.4	+4
8	Jonathan Taylor	IND	13	17	246.8	190 – 303	6.8	-5
9	Saquon Barkley	PHI	—	17	244.0	179 – 309	14.4	-1
10	Chase Brown	CIN	6	17	220.1	158 – 282	18.3	+2
11	Josh Jacobs	GB	—	17	218.2	156 – 281	26.5	+3
12	Omarion Hampton	LAC	7	17	217.9	156 – 280	16.1	-2
13	De'Von Achane	MIA	6	17	208.0	157 – 259	13.6	-6
14	D'Andre Swift	CHI	10	17	207.9	146 – 270	53.6	+9
15	Javonte Williams	DAL	14	17	207.0	145 – 269	36.6	+3
16	Bucky Irving	TB	10	17	195.4	136 – 255	45.0	+3
17	Kenneth Walker III	KC	5	17	195.1	130 – 260	15.9	-8
18	J.K. Dobbins	DEN	10	17	188.6	126 – 251	103.3	+17
19	Cam Skattebo	NYG	8	17	182.5	126 – 239	46.8	+1
20	Travis Etienne	NO	8	17	181.7	125 – 238	31.2	-4
21	Ashton Jeanty	LV	13	17	175.4	125 – 226	12.0	-15
22	Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	11	17	169.2	107 – 232	74.9	+6
23	Quinshon Judkins	CLE	11	17	168.0	115 – 221	56.0	+1
24	Breece Hall	NYJ	13	17	165.2	115 – 216	30.3	-9
25	David Montgomery	HOU	—	17	162.2	100 – 225	49.2	-3
26	Jaylen Warren	PIT	9	17	149.6	93 – 206	80.7	+4
27	Chuba Hubbard	CAR	5	17	144.9	89 – 201	68.6	0
28	Tony Pollard	TEN	—	17	144.3	91 – 198	76.9	+1
29	Aaron Jones	MIN	—	17	135.6	76 – 195	120.0	+10
30	Bhayshul Tuten	JAX	7	17	126.2	64 – 188	60.7	-4
31	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	WAS	7	17	124.2	68 – 181	114.1	+6
32	TreVeyon Henderson	NE	11	11	122.8	82 – 163	47.3	-11
33	RJ Harvey	DEN	10	11	115.8	75 – 156	84.4	-2
34	Jadarian Price ROOKIE	SEA	—	11	114.9	73 – 157	58.2	-9
35	Zach Charbonnet INJ · ≤11 gm	SEA	11	11	108.6	66 – 151	157.8	+12
36	Woody Marks	HOU	8	11	105.7	65 – 146	149.0	+9
37	Alvin Kamara	NO	—	11	100.9	64 – 137	181.2	+16
38	Kyle Monangai	CHI	10	11	100.6	60 – 141	90.0	-6
39	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	NYG	8	11	98.1	62 – 134	130.3	+3
40	Rico Dowdle	PIT	9	11	96.3	60 – 133	90.5	-7
41	Blake Corum	LAR	—	11	91.4	47 – 136	96.4	-7
42	Isiah Pacheco	DET	6	11	88.2	46 – 130	150.6	+4
43	Kenneth Gainwell	TB	10	11	85.9	48 – 124	117.6	-5
44	Rachaad White	WAS	7	11	84.6	48 – 121	122.9	-3
45	Jordan Mason	MIN	6	11	80.0	42 – 118	121.9	-5
46	Chris Rodriguez Jr.	JAX	7	11	76.5	36 – 117	110.9	-10
47	Tank Bigsby	PHI	10	11	76.0	34 – 118	178.4	+5
48	Tyjae Spears	TEN	9	11	74.8	40 – 109	162.8	+1
49	Dylan Sampson	CLE	11	11	74.4	40 – 109	167.6	+2
50	Brashard Smith	KC	5	11	73.7	32 – 116	216.0	+14
51	Ty Johnson	BUF	—	11	68.6	26 – 111	215.8	+11
52	Samaje Perine	CIN	—	11	67.7	27 – 108	215.6	+8
53	Brian Robinson	ATL	11	11	67.0	31 – 103	165.4	-3
54	Mike Washington ROOKIE	LV	—	11	63.8	31 – 96	184.2	0
55	Keaton Mitchell	LAC	7	11	62.0	22 – 102	145.0	-11
56	Tyler Allgeier	ARI	14	11	59.6	27 – 92	159.2	-8
57	Jaylen Wright	MIA	6	11	57.7	25 – 90	215.9	+6
58	Kareem Hunt FA · ≤4 gm	FA	—	4	33.9	20 – 48	216.0	+7
59	Nick Chubb FA · ≤4 gm	FA	—	4	31.6	18 – 46	—	—
60	Kimani Vidal	LAC	7	2	18.6	11 – 26	212.1	-1
61	Devin Neal	NO	8	2	14.3	8 – 21	216.0	+5
62	Kaelon Black ROOKIE	SF	—	2	13.1	6 – 21	206.4	-4
63	Devin Singletary	NYG	—	2	12.4	6 – 19	216.0	+4
64	Ray Davis	BUF	7	2	12.3	5 – 20	203.1	-7
65	Jonah Coleman ROOKIE	DEN	—	2	11.9	5 – 19	141.8	-22
66	Emanuel Wilson	SEA	11	2	10.8	3 – 19	192.4	-11
67	Sean Tucker	TB	10	2	10.5	4 – 17	200.1	-11
68	Isaiah Davis	NYJ	13	2	10.3	4 – 16	216.0	0
69	Ollie Gordon II	MIA	6	2	9.5	4 – 15	215.6	-8
70	Emari Demercado	KC	5	0	0.0	0 – 0	216.0	-1
71	Bam Knight	ARI	14	0	0.0	0 – 0	—	—
72	Michael Carter	TEN	9	0	0.0	0 – 0	—	—
73	Jeremy McNichols	WAS	—	0	0.0	0 – 0	—	—

WR101 playersValue = model rank − ADP rank

#	Player	Team	Bye	Gms	Proj	Range	ADP	Value
1	Puka Nacua	LAR	—	17	294.0	243 – 345	4.1	+1
2	Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	6	17	270.4	224 – 317	3.1	-1
3	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	6	17	266.4	218 – 315	8.0	+1
4	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	11	17	262.6	214 – 311	5.2	-1
5	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	14	17	222.4	176 – 269	9.3	0
6	Zay Flowers	BAL	13	17	215.0	164 – 266	38.2	+9
7	Nico Collins	HOU	8	17	213.1	166 – 260	25.8	+3
8	Jameson Williams	DET	6	17	211.4	163 – 260	48.2	+13
9	Rashee Rice	KC	5	17	210.2	162 – 259	19.0	-2
10	George Pickens	DAL	14	17	209.7	163 – 256	25.3	-1
11	Justin Jefferson	MIN	6	17	202.6	158 – 247	9.7	-5
12	Tee Higgins	CIN	6	17	198.2	152 – 245	35.6	+1
13	DeVonta Smith	PHI	10	17	198.2	150 – 247	32.2	-2
14	Chris Olave	NO	8	17	194.3	152 – 236	32.7	-2
15	A.J. Brown	NE	—	17	193.6	147 – 240	215.8	+70
16	Drake London	ATL	11	17	191.4	149 – 233	19.7	-8
17	Davante Adams	LAR	—	17	188.4	138 – 239	50.9	+7
18	Ladd McConkey	LAC	7	17	183.9	137 – 230	40.5	0
19	Brian Thomas Jr.	JAX	7	17	182.5	136 – 229	64.8	+11
20	Courtland Sutton	DEN	—	17	177.9	131 – 224	81.2	+16
21	Emeka Egbuka	TB	10	17	175.7	132 – 220	39.9	-4
22	Carnell Tate ROOKIE	TEN	—	17	174.3	130 – 218	60.7	+6
23	Khalil Shakir	BUF	7	17	172.2	123 – 221	127.0	+27
24	Tetairoa McMillan	CAR	5	17	171.4	129 – 213	35.7	-10
25	Ricky Pearsall	SF	8	17	168.1	120 – 217	101.7	+18
26	Quentin Johnston	LAC	7	17	167.6	121 – 214	94.2	+14
27	Christian Watson	GB	11	17	166.6	120 – 213	59.3	0
28	Jordan Addison	MIN	6	17	165.5	121 – 210	85.6	+9
29	Mike Evans	SF	—	17	164.0	115 – 213	45.3	-9
30	Rome Odunze	CHI	10	17	160.3	114 – 207	56.4	-4
31	Jauan Jennings	SF	8	17	160.3	112 – 209	146.9	+23
32	Xavier Worthy	KC	5	17	158.8	110 – 207	110.0	+13
33	Jakobi Meyers	JAX	—	17	156.3	110 – 203	95.9	+8
34	Jordyn Tyson ROOKIE	NO	—	17	156.0	110 – 202	62.5	-5
35	DJ Moore	BUF	—	17	155.4	107 – 204	53.0	-10
36	Jaylen Waddle	DEN	10	17	155.1	108 – 202	49.9	-14
37	DK Metcalf	PIT	—	17	154.6	112 – 197	76.5	-2
38	Parker Washington	JAX	7	17	151.3	105 – 198	75.4	-4
39	Keon Coleman	BUF	7	17	149.5	101 – 198	214.8	+39
40	Troy Franklin	DEN	10	17	149.2	103 – 196	210.1	+32
41	Romeo Doubs	NE	11	17	148.2	102 – 195	113.4	+5
42	Rashid Shaheed	SEA	11	17	148.2	99 – 197	136.8	+9
43	Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN	9	17	143.4	104 – 183	117.4	+5
44	Makai Lemon ROOKIE	PHI	—	17	142.8	89 – 196	72.5	-11
45	Luther Burden III	CHI	10	17	142.7	96 – 189	42.5	-26
46	Jayden Higgins	HOU	8	17	140.5	94 – 187	123.9	+3
47	Cooper Kupp	SEA	—	17	140.5	92 – 189	208.3	+22
48	Garrett Wilson	NYJ	13	17	140.4	103 – 178	38.3	-32
49	Terry McLaurin	WAS	—	17	139.1	97 – 181	50.5	-26
50	Alec Pierce	IND	13	17	138.2	96 – 180	71.5	-18
51	Chris Godwin	TB	—	17	136.1	92 – 180	88.7	-12
52	Michael Wilson	ARI	14	17	135.9	98 – 174	87.6	-14
53	Michael Pittman	PIT	9	17	134.9	93 – 177	108.3	-9
54	Josh Downs	IND	13	17	134.8	93 – 177	99.3	-12
55	Marvin Harrison Jr.	ARI	14	17	132.7	95 – 170	67.4	-24
56	Tre Tucker	LV	13	17	123.1	85 – 161	157.3	0
57	Ryan Flournoy	DAL	14	17	121.8	75 – 168	183.1	+6
58	KC Concepcion ROOKIE	CLE	—	17	121.2	77 – 165	114.8	-11
59	Elic Ayomanor	TEN	9	17	119.8	80 – 160	215.9	+28
60	Marvin Mims Jr.	DEN	10	17	119.3	73 – 166	215.9	+28
61	Christian Kirk	SF	—	17	118.3	70 – 167	213.7	+15
62	Xavier Hutchinson	HOU	8	17	116.4	70 – 163	215.9	+27
63	De'Zhaun Stribling ROOKIE	SF	—	17	115.3	62 – 169	164.1	-4
64	Jerry Jeudy	CLE	11	17	113.6	74 – 153	179.9	-3
65	Chimere Dike	TEN	9	17	109.2	70 – 149	215.6	+18
66	Xavier Legette	CAR	5	17	106.1	64 – 148	216.0	+26
67	Omar Cooper ROOKIE	NYJ	—	17	105.7	64 – 147	139.9	-15
68	Andrei Iosivas	CIN	6	17	105.3	59 – 152	215.4	+13
69	Malik Washington	MIA	6	17	102.3	65 – 140	203.2	-1
70	Denzel Boston ROOKIE	CLE	—	17	101.4	58 – 145	161.3	-12
71	Germie Bernard ROOKIE	PIT	—	17	101.0	54 – 148	182.5	-9
72	Mack Hollins	NE	—	17	99.6	53 – 146	216.0	+21
73	Stefon Diggs FA · ≤10 gm	FA	—	10	90.5	64 – 117	141.1	-20
74	Darnell Mooney	NYG	8	17	90.0	48 – 132	198.7	-7
75	Darius Slayton	NYG	—	17	90.0	48 – 132	215.7	+9
76	Jalen Nailor	LV	13	17	85.1	47 – 123	156.7	-21
77	Ja'Kobi Lane ROOKIE	BAL	—	17	83.4	27 – 140	214.7	0
78	Adonai Mitchell	NYJ	13	17	82.7	45 – 120	210.9	-5
79	Kendrick Bourne	ARI	—	17	82.1	44 – 120	215.9	+11
80	Calvin Austin III	NYG	8	17	81.6	40 – 124	216.0	+14
81	Van Jefferson	WAS	7	17	81.6	39 – 124	—	—
82	Olamide Zaccheaus	ATL	—	17	80.2	38 – 122	216.0	+13
83	Antonio Williams ROOKIE	WAS	—	17	77.6	31 – 124	160.1	-26
84	Chris Brazzell ROOKIE	CAR	—	17	75.5	29 – 122	213.0	-10
85	Caleb Douglas ROOKIE	MIA	—	17	75.3	34 – 117	215.0	-6
86	Ted Hurst ROOKIE	TB	—	17	75.0	26 – 124	193.1	-21
87	Zachariah Branch ROOKIE	ATL	—	17	73.7	27 – 120	198.0	-21
88	Brenen Thompson ROOKIE	LAC	—	17	71.2	20 – 123	215.3	-8
89	Malachi Fields ROOKIE	NYG	—	17	69.9	24 – 116	210.0	-18
90	Colbie Young ROOKIE	CIN	—	17	69.7	18 – 121	216.0	+6
91	Zavion Thomas ROOKIE	CHI	—	17	68.3	17 – 120	215.4	-9
92	Chris Bell ROOKIE	MIA	—	17	68.0	26 – 110	188.5	-28
93	Kaden Wetjen ROOKIE	PIT	—	17	67.5	21 – 114	216.0	+4
94	Deebo Samuel FA · ≤8 gm	FA	—	8	67.3	46 – 88	170.1	-34
95	Elijah Sarratt ROOKIE	BAL	—	17	66.9	13 – 121	208.6	-25
96	Bryce Lance ROOKIE	NO	—	17	60.1	14 – 107	215.9	-5
97	Skyler Bell ROOKIE	BUF	—	17	50.4	4 – 97	213.6	-22
98	Keenan Allen FA · ≤6 gm	FA	—	6	48.5	33 – 64	215.8	-12
99	Sterling Shepard FA · ≤2 gm	FA	—	2	10.0	5 – 15	—	—
100	Tyler Lockett FA · ≤2 gm	FA	—	2	9.1	4 – 14	—	—
101	Marquise Brown	PHI	—	0	0.0	0 – 0	—	—

TE48 playersValue = model rank − ADP rank

#	Player	Team	Bye	Gms	Proj	Range	ADP	Value
1	George Kittle	SF	—	17	176.4	136 – 217	116.7	+8
2	Sam LaPorta	DET	6	17	165.1	124 – 206	97.8	+5
3	Trey McBride	ARI	14	17	161.5	130 – 193	24.4	-1
4	Travis Kelce	KC	—	17	160.6	120 – 201	124.3	+6
5	Dalton Kincaid	BUF	7	17	156.9	116 – 198	131.3	+8
6	Colston Loveland	CHI	10	17	153.8	115 – 192	46.6	-3
7	Dallas Goedert	PHI	—	17	153.6	113 – 194	135.3	+7
8	Tucker Kraft	GB	11	17	152.5	114 – 191	80.5	-3
9	Tyler Warren	IND	13	17	147.1	112 – 182	66.7	-5
10	Mark Andrews	BAL	—	17	144.3	102 – 187	127.3	+2
11	Kyle Pitts	ATL	11	17	139.9	105 – 175	103.4	-3
12	Hunter Henry	NE	—	17	138.4	100 – 177	150.2	+5
13	Oronde Gadsden II	LAC	7	17	137.7	99 – 176	137.0	+2
14	Jake Ferguson	DAL	14	17	136.0	97 – 175	124.3	-3
15	AJ Barner	SEA	11	17	133.7	93 – 174	170.3	+7
16	Brock Bowers	LV	13	17	132.7	101 – 164	21.3	-15
17	Brenton Strange	JAX	7	17	132.1	93 – 171	153.0	+1
18	Dalton Schultz	HOU	—	17	129.4	91 – 168	171.3	+5
19	Harold Fannin Jr.	CLE	11	17	125.9	93 – 159	91.9	-13
20	Evan Engram	DEN	—	17	125.0	86 – 164	214.9	+12
21	Dawson Knox	BUF	—	17	124.4	84 – 165	215.7	+16
22	Cade Otton	TB	10	17	122.8	86 – 160	185.4	+3
23	T.J. Hockenson	MIN	—	17	122.4	86 – 159	163.9	-2
24	Colby Parkinson	LAR	—	17	121.1	79 – 164	214.1	+7
25	Jake Tonges	SF	8	17	119.7	79 – 160	212.3	+5
26	Juwan Johnson	NO	8	17	117.5	82 – 153	155.5	-6
27	Theo Johnson	NYG	8	17	116.2	81 – 151	215.4	+6
28	Pat Freiermuth	PIT	9	17	110.2	75 – 145	194.7	0
29	David Njoku	LAC	—	17	109.1	70 – 148	190.3	-3
30	Cole Kmet	CHI	10	17	107.0	68 – 146	215.9	+10
31	Darnell Washington	PIT	9	17	106.0	71 – 141	215.6	+5
32	Chig Okonkwo	WAS	7	17	104.1	69 – 139	153.2	-13
33	Mike Gesicki	CIN	—	17	103.8	65 – 143	207.8	-4
34	Kenyon Sadiq ROOKIE	NYJ	—	17	100.5	70 – 131	147.7	-18
35	Mason Taylor	NYJ	13	17	95.6	64 – 127	215.8	+4
36	Gunnar Helm	TEN	9	17	91.1	58 – 124	181.2	-12
37	Eli Stowers ROOKIE	PHI	—	17	82.3	43 – 122	193.5	-10
38	Michael Mayer	LV	13	17	77.2	46 – 109	215.5	-4
39	Max Klare ROOKIE	LAR	—	17	77.1	36 – 119	215.9	+2
40	Noah Fant	NO	—	17	76.8	42 – 112	216.0	+2
41	Marlin Klein ROOKIE	HOU	—	17	76.1	38 – 114	216.0	+2
42	Nate Boerkircher ROOKIE	JAX	—	17	72.9	35 – 111	216.0	+2
43	Eli Raridon ROOKIE	NE	—	17	71.0	33 – 109	215.7	-5
44	Oscar Delp ROOKIE	NO	—	17	62.7	28 – 97	215.5	-9
45	Sam Roush ROOKIE	CHI	—	17	61.6	24 – 100	216.0	0
46	Will Kacmarek ROOKIE	MIA	—	17	54.7	24 – 86	216.0	0
47	Jonnu Smith FA · ≤8 gm	FA	—	8	46.9	29 – 64	—	—
48	Zach Ertz FA · ≤6 gm	FA	—	6	42.9	30 – 56	216.0	-1

⚖Model vs market — biggest disagreements (within-position ranks; review queue, not auto-picks)

Model above market

Potential values — or context the model can't see. Verify before buying.

	Player	Team	Model	ADP	Gap
WR	A.J. Brown	NE	WR15	WR85	+70
WR	Keon Coleman	BUF	WR39	WR78	+39
WR	Troy Franklin	DEN	WR40	WR72	+32
WR	Khalil Shakir	BUF	WR23	WR50	+27
WR	Jauan Jennings	SF	WR31	WR54	+23
WR	Cooper Kupp	SEA	WR47	WR69	+22
WR	Ricky Pearsall	SF	WR25	WR43	+18
RB	J.K. Dobbins	DEN	RB18	RB35	+17
RB	Alvin Kamara	NO	RB37	RB53	+16
WR	Courtland Sutton	DEN	WR20	WR36	+16

Market above model

Drafters know something — injury returns, role changes — or they're chasing name value.

	Player	Team	Model	ADP	Gap
WR	Garrett Wilson	NYJ	WR48	WR16	-32
WR	Luther Burden III	CHI	WR45	WR19	-26
WR	Terry McLaurin	WAS	WR49	WR23	-26
WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	ARI	WR55	WR31	-24
WR	Alec Pierce	IND	WR50	WR32	-18
TE	Kenyon Sadiq	NYJ	TE34	TE16	-18
QB	Jayden Daniels	WAS	QB19	QB4	-15
RB	Ashton Jeanty	LV	RB21	RB6	-15
TE	Brock Bowers	LV	TE16	TE1	-15
WR	Jaylen Waddle	DEN	WR36	WR22	-14

Model evaluation

Walk-forward cross-validation on held-out historical seasons (2018–2025). Tables show the production or winning model per target vs a simple baseline (naive per-game average, prior-season share, or train mean). MAE and RMSE are in native per-game units unless noted.

Team offense — walk-forward CV (32 teams × 8 seasons)

Target	Winner	MAE	RMSE	R²	MAE (naive)	N × Seasons
Pass attempts/g	hgb	2.67↓ 10% vs naive	3.389	+0.037	2.983	256 × 8y
Rush carries/g	ridge	2.18↓ 11% vs naive	2.73	+0.166	2.458	256 × 8y
Pass rate	ridge	0.034↓ 11% vs naive	0.044	+0.136	0.038	256 × 8y
Offense plays/g	ridge	2.42↓ 5% vs naive	3.003	-0.061	2.548	256 × 8y

Usage share model — walk-forward CV (within-team allocation)

Target	Winner	Share MAE	Alloc RMSE	Alloc RMSE (lag1)	N × Seasons
Pass share (QB room)	ridge	22.23pp↓ 5% alloc RMSE vs lag1	163.48	172.45	411 × 8y
Rush share (QB+RB)	hgb	8.99pp↓ 12% alloc RMSE vs lag1	55.44	63.01	1180 × 8y
Target share (skill)	hgb	3.6pp↓ 14% alloc RMSE vs lag1	27.75	32.2	2453 × 8y

QB — FPPG walk-forward CV (presumed starters)

Target	Model	MAE (fp/g)	RMSE	R²	MAE (naive)	N × Seasons
Fantasy points/g	extra_trees	2.713↓ 4% vs naive	3.455	+0.285	2.824	263 × 8y

RB — skill model (veterans, walk-forward CV)

Target	MAE (ridge/g)	RMSE	R²	MAE (naive)	N × Seasons
Carries/g	2.727↓ 8% vs naive	3.361	+0.494	2.969	465 × 8y
Rush yd/g	13.847↓ 6% vs naive	17.303	+0.431	14.654	465 × 8y
Rush TD/g	0.175↓ 12% vs naive	0.235	+0.234	0.199	465 × 8y
Targets/g	0.903↓ 7% vs naive	1.126	+0.448	0.969	465 × 8y
Rec/g	0.73↓ 7% vs naive	0.922	+0.439	0.784	465 × 8y
Rec yd/g	6.436↓ 7% vs naive	8.133	+0.395	6.89	465 × 8y

WR — skill model (veterans, walk-forward CV)

Target	MAE (ridge/g)	RMSE	R²	MAE (naive)	N × Seasons
Targets/g	1.12↓ 9% vs naive	1.369	+0.476	1.237	516 × 8y
Rec/g	0.874↓ 7% vs naive	1.081	+0.441	0.942	516 × 8y
Rec yd/g	12.068↓ 7% vs naive	14.926	+0.396	12.965	516 × 8y
Rec TD/g	0.143↓ 12% vs naive	0.179	+0.200	0.162	516 × 8y
Rush yd/g	1.178↓ -4% vs naive	1.951	+0.297	1.128	516 × 8y

TE — skill model (veterans, walk-forward CV)

Target	MAE (ridge/g)	RMSE	R²	MAE (naive)	N × Seasons
Targets/g	1.087↓ 9% vs naive	1.334	+0.333	1.191	209 × 8y
Rec/g	0.831↓ 10% vs naive	1.014	+0.302	0.922	209 × 8y
Rec yd/g	10.28↓ 4% vs naive	12.618	+0.283	10.763	209 × 8y
Rec TD/g	0.128↓ 17% vs naive	0.161	+0.042	0.154	209 × 8y

Rookie model — leave-one-season-out CV (draft picks 2012–2025)

4.18

MAE fp/g

102 player-seasons · ridge

2.92

MAE fp/g

256 player-seasons · ridge

2.42

MAE fp/g

372 player-seasons · ridge

1.83

MAE fp/g

157 player-seasons · ridge