NFL · Walk-forward ML

Fantasy projections, backed by real models

Editable team-by-team projections, nflverse reference data, draft tools, and walk-forward-validated ML outputs for every skill position — plus a side-by-side look at where the model disagrees with the Vegas market.

4
Positions modeled
1,190
Player-seasons back-tested
14/15
Targets beating baseline
2026
Last model refresh

Explore

Projections

Editable web workbook — set per-team stat lines and watch combined QB/RB/WR/TE boards update, with model values shadowed in every cell.

Open workbook →

Models

Walk-forward QB/RB/WR/TE projections — veterans and rookies — with calibrated ranges, model-vs-ADP value, and full evaluation metrics.

View models →

Props

Projected season stat totals in sportsbook units, plus a stored Vegas-line comparison that surfaces the biggest model-market gaps.

Compare vs Vegas →

Draft tools

Cheatsheet, rankings, and stacks — plus a live draft agent that recommends picks against your board in real time.

Open draft tools →

Reference

2026 rosters, prior-season player totals, and team offense tables — straight from nflverse, ready to browse and download.

Open reference →

How it works

01 · INGEST
nflverse data
Rosters, play-by-play, and historical box scores pulled into a versioned SQLite store.
02 · MODEL
Per-position ML
Ridge feature models per stat for QB/RB/WR/TE, with a draft-capital model for rookies.
03 · VALIDATE
Walk-forward CV
Every season scored out-of-sample and benchmarked against a naive 3-year baseline.
04 · PROJECT
2026 outputs
Calibrated ranges, ADP value, and sportsbook-unit lines — published here.